FOR Deep Research Report: Token Future Development and Trajectory

Executive summary
The token landscape in 2025 is being reshaped by four durable forces: clearer regulatory pressure and evolving token classification, rapid Layer‑2 scaling and ZK rollup adoption, institutional treasury and RWA (real‑world asset) tokenisation activity, and the convergence of AI with token‑based infrastructure. This report synthesizes those trends, highlights practical implications for builders and holders, and outlines custody and security priorities for any token strategy. Key sources informing this analysis include regulators, on‑chain analytics, and market infrastructure research. Read the SEC’s evolving approach to digital assets. (sec.gov)

1. Macro drivers shaping token futures

• Regulatory clarity and classification pressure
  2024–2025 saw renewed regulatory attention on how tokens are classified and how intermediaries must operate. U.S. rulemaking and agency discussions emphasize a taxonomy approach and post‑issuance analysis of token economics and issuer control. That trend increases compliance costs for token issuers but also lowers uncertainty for projects that proactively design on‑chain governance and disclosure. See the SEC’s ongoing commentary and Crypto Task Force materials for context. [SEC: Project Crypto and task force input pages]. (sec.gov)

• Layer‑2 and scaling economics
  Continued migration of activity to Ethereum Layer‑2s and rollups is changing where token utility and liquidity live. Layer‑2 networks have captured large TVL and transaction throughput, enabling lower gas friction for tokens, micropayments, and composable DeFi activity. Developers should expect token launches and composability denominated on L2s to be common practice for the next several years. For up‑to‑date L2 metrics and monthly trends, consult L2BEAT’s reports. [L2BEAT monthly updates]. (l2beat.com)

• Institutional adoption, treasuries and tokenized finance (RWA)
  Institutions and asset managers are increasingly using tokens for treasury exposure and fractional access to assets. The combination of regulated ETPs, tokenized funds, and corporate digital‑asset treasuries is driving a portion of token demand that is less retail‑driven and more portfolio/treasury‑driven. Parallel to this, permissioned and public pilots for tokenized bonds, funds, and other RWAs are accelerating across Asia and Europe. Market participants should treat RWA tokenisation as an expanding, but regulated, channel for long‑term token demand. See Messari and BIS analyses on institutional flows and tokenisation frameworks. (messari.io)

• Narrative innovation: AI, on‑chain compute and new token use cases
  The AI + crypto narrative matured from speculative meme‑cycles into infrastructure experiments: decentralized compute markets, token‑governed model marketplaces, and on‑chain agent economies. These projects introduce new token utilities (compute staking, data provenance credits, reputation) but also concentrate technical risk and speculative volatility. CoinDesk’s coverage of decentralized AI infrastructure outlines the practical engineering and token models emerging in 2025. (coindesk.com)

2. Token types: outlook and practical expectations

• Governance and protocol tokens
  Outlook: Governance tokens will remain essential for alignment but face regulatory scrutiny when economic rewards or issuer control create “investment contract” dynamics. Practical expectation: teams should document decentralization milestones, on‑chain governance mechanics, and utility functions clearly; consider staged decentralization and legal review.

• Stablecoins and settlement tokens
  Outlook: Stablecoins continue to dominate on‑chain liquidity and settlement. Their role in cross‑border settlements, DeFi rails, and commerce will expand, but so will regulatory oversight (reserve transparency, issuance controls). Chainalysis and regulatory reports indicate stablecoins now account for a large share of on‑chain activity, which shapes both utility and compliance priorities. (chainalysis.com)

• Layer‑2 native and gas‑sponsored tokens
  Outlook: Tokens native to L2s or tightly coupled with rollup economies will gain traction for gas management, liquidity incentives, and local DeFi. Projects launching on L2 should optimize for cross‑chain UX (bridging, canonical asset custody) and model token supply schedules around cross‑chain liquidity dynamics. Refer to L2BEAT for TVL and transaction trends. (l2beat.com)

• RWA tokens (security tokens, tokenized funds, fractionalized assets)
  Outlook: Adoption will be incremental and regionally uneven. Permissioned pilots and regulated marketplaces will lead practical growth; fully permissionless RWA markets face legal and custody frictions. BIS research emphasizes governance, settlement finality, and systemic considerations when tokenising core monetary instruments. (bis.org)

• AI and compute tokens
  Outlook: Token models that capture value for decentralized compute, data curation, and model marketplaces will present both real utility and speculative baggage. Expect aggressive divergence in outcomes: some networks will host sustainable markets; many meme projects will underdeliver. CoinDesk’s analysis of crypto AI infrastructure highlights the underlying technical momentum and risks. (coindesk.com)

3. Risks and guardrails

• Regulatory risk is first‑order
  Projects that fail to architect legal compliance into token design (distribution, vesting, revenue sharing, issuer control) will face enforcement or forced redesign. Use robust legal process, clear disclosures, and consider jurisdictional issuer strategies. See SEC task force materials for filings and public inputs. (sec.gov)

• Smart‑contract and oracle risk
  Token value remains tightly coupled to contract security and external data feeds. Design for modular upgradability, timelocks on upgrades, and multi‑party governance for oracle changes.

• Custody and key risk (operational security)
  As tokens diversify across chains and L2s, secure key management and multi‑chain custody become operational priorities. Self‑custody with hardware keys, multisigs and threshold signatures are practical defenses against exchange counterparty risk and centralized custody failures.

• Market and network concentration
  TVL concentration on a few L2s or token issuers can create correlated systemic events. Monitor on‑chain concentration metrics and stress‑test treasury liquidity.

• Illicit finance and AML pressures
  On‑chain analytics show persistent illicit flows and evolving laundering techniques; issuers and intermediaries must maintain AML/KYC compliance and cooperate with on‑chain monitoring standards. Chainalysis’s 2025 crime analysis highlights stablecoin use in certain illicit flows and the professionalisation of laundering techniques. (chainalysis.com)

4. Actionable guidance for builders and investors

• For protocol teams

  • Build token models around clear utility and measurable usage metrics (fees, staking demand, subscription flows).
  • Bake decentralization milestones into roadmaps, with verifiable on‑chain governance transitions and transparent treasury disclosures.
  • Prioritize L2‑first deployment plans where appropriate to minimize friction for early users; reference L2BEAT data when weighing target rollups. (l2beat.com)

• For institutional investors and treasury managers

  • Treat token allocations like alternative exposures: stress‑test liquidity, custody and regulatory scenarios. Institutional adoption is rising—use custody products that support segregated accounts, on‑chain attestations, and insured custody where available. See Messari and industry weekly briefs for examples of treasury allocations and M&A trends. (messari.io)

• For retail holders and power users

  • Emphasize self‑custody education: hardware keys, multisig wallets, and safe bridging practices. Monitor token unlock schedules and governance proposals—these often drive short‑term volatility.

5. Custody & security: technical checklist

• Prefer cold or hardware‑backed key storage for protocol treasuries and long‑term holdings. Use multisignature with independent signers.
• Use dedicated bridging and timelock smart contracts for cross‑chain treasury movement.
• Deploy on‑chain monitoring and anomaly alerts (large transfers, approvals).
• Establish an emergency key‑rotation and recovery plan; consider social recovery or threshold schemes for user features while keeping treasury keys air‑gapped.
  These operational guardrails reduce single‑point failures and make token stewardship resilient against both technical and regulatory shocks.

6. Scenario view: three plausible 2026 outcomes

• Conservative adoption: Regulation tightens, token issuance slows, RWA pilots remain permissioned. Tokens that survived by productizing utility and complying grow modestly; speculative narratives contract. (High regulatory activity, slow retail cycles.) (sec.gov)

• Productive integration: Layer‑2 scaling, tokenized settlement rails, and regulated stablecoins enable broader institutional on‑chain activity. RWAs and tokenized funds scale in regulated venues; AI compute tokens find niche infrastructure use. (Moderate regulatory clarity, increased institutional flows.) (l2beat.com)

• Volatile bifurcation: A handful of large token economies (L2‑native, RWA hubs, or AI platforms) concentrate activity while many speculative projects collapse. Market cycles amplify winners and clear losers; custody and custodianship issues dominate headlines. (High market concentration, episodic crashes.) (chainalysis.com)

7. Recommendations

• Product and token design: make utility measurable, decentralization demonstrable, and compliance proactive. Legal reviews before token distribution are essential. (sec.gov)
• Infrastructure: prioritize L2 deployments and routing of settlement flows to low‑cost, high‑throughput rollups while designing robust cross‑chain bridges. (l2beat.com)
• Custody & operations: enforce hardware‑backed multisig for treasuries, continuous monitoring, and documented incident response. Consider custodial partnerships that provide on‑chain attestations and insurance where appropriate. (messari.io)

Conclusion — what this means for token stakeholders
Tokens are moving from pure speculation toward specialized, utility‑driven roles in finance, compute, and settlement. That shift rewards rigorous tokenomics, careful compliance design, and operational security. Projects and holders that adopt L2‑friendly architectures, transparent governance, and hardware‑backed custody will be best positioned to capture durable value.

Recommended practical tool (custody note)
Given the increasing complexity of multi‑chain token operations and the importance of secure key management, hardware‑backed self‑custody remains a core control for both individuals and protocol treasuries. A modern hardware wallet that supports multi‑chain signatures, easy multisig integration, secure firmware updates, and strong UX for transaction review helps close the gap between usability and security. OneKey’s product family emphasizes intuitive multi‑chain management and hardware key isolation, making it a practical option for teams and advanced users looking to maintain control of private keys while operating across L2s and tokenized asset flows.

Selected references and further reading

• Chainalysis — 2025 Crypto Crime Report (on illicit volumes, stablecoin trends). [Chainalysis 2025 Crypto Crime Trends]. (chainalysis.com)
• L2BEAT — Monthly updates on Layer‑2 TVL and activity. [L2BEAT October 2025 Monthly Update]. (l2beat.com)
• Bank for International Settlements — Tokenisation and implications for monetary/financial systems. [BIS Annual Report chapter on tokenisation]. (bis.org)
• SEC — speeches and Crypto Task Force inputs on token treatment and regulatory approach. [SEC: Project Crypto and Task Force material]. (sec.gov)
• CoinDesk — analysis of decentralized AI infrastructure and token models. [CoinDesk: The Big Bet on Crypto’s AI Infrastructure]. (coindesk.com)
• Messari — market and treasury activity briefs (institutional flows, M&A). [Messari Crypto Venture Weekly]. (messari.io)

If you’d like, I can:

• Produce a shorter executive summary slide deck for internal distribution, or
• Map a checklist for launching a compliant, L2‑first token (legal, technical, treasury, and custody steps), or
• Create a sample multisig treasury architecture and recommended hardware‑wallet integration for a protocol treasury.