Holding Is the Real Alpha: A Practical Framework for Long-Term Crypto Positioning
Key Takeaways
• Great assets are often sold too early due to emotional reactions and lack of structure
• True rationality comes from pre-planned systems, not sheer discipline
• The four-wallet system—Fiat, Cold, Warm, Hot—helps balance risk, returns, and emotions
• It’s harder to rebuild a position after selling than to find a new asset
• Long-term success doesn’t rely on a higher win rate but on portfolio structure and risk management
• Conviction isn’t just belief—it’s a system that prepares you to survive mistakes
Holding On Is the Real Skill: What We Learned from Shenyu on Position Management
In a bullish market, everyone rushes in, afraid of missing the next big thing. But those who truly build long-term wealth—across market cycles—aren’t just making bold bets. They rely on structure and systems.
This article combines OneKey’s “Position Management Framework” with insights from a recent podcast conversation hosted by E2M Research featuring veteran investor Shenyu.
We’ll explore:
- What makes a great asset?
- Why is it so hard to hold on to one?
- How do we build a mental and financial structure to survive volatility?
1. Great Assets Are Easy to Sell Too Early
At the end of 2024, Shenyu made a point that many investors can relate to:
“The hard part isn't finding great assets. It's having the conviction to keep holding them.”
Even when we’ve done the research and entered at the right time, it's often the emotional reactions to price volatility—combined with social pressure or the fear of giving back gains—that lead us to exit too early.
Without a clear system for managing these feelings, our best ideas are often sold too soon.
2. Rationality Isn't About Discipline—It's About Design
Shenyu emphasizes:
“You need to set up systems when you’re calm, so you can survive when you’re not.”
That’s what the “Position Management Framework” is all about: a simple way to structure your assets so your future emotional self doesn’t override your long-term plan.
OneKey divides a portfolio into four types of wallets:
- Fiat Wallet
- Cold Wallet
- Warm Wallet
- Hot Wallet
Each wallet has a different purpose and emotional function. Together, they create a structure that’s resilient to hype, panic, and doubt.
3. The Four-Wallet System Explained
Fiat Wallet: The Emotional Safety Net
This is your base layer. It’s cash—bank deposits, stable yields, or treasury bills—meant to cover everyday living expenses.
A practical rule of thumb: income from this wallet should cover one year of living costs. That way, even in a market crash, your life isn’t disrupted and you won’t be forced to sell key assets at the worst time.
Cold Wallet: Long-Term Conviction
This wallet is for assets you plan to hold for years—BTC, ETH, or other high-conviction investments.
Put them in an air-gapped device like OneKey or Ledger and forget about them. The point is not just security—it’s separation.
You’re creating distance between your emotions and your core assets. Shenyu calls this “building friction,” which protects you from panic-selling during volatile markets.
Warm Wallet: Controlled Yield, Moderate Access
Warm wallets are your cash-flow layer—assets staked or lent out for yield, but still managed carefully.
They’re not as locked-down as your cold wallet, but not as exposed as your hot wallet. They generate steady returns and provide psychological balance when your cold assets are fluctuating.
Hot Wallet: Explore, Test, Learn
This is your experimental sandbox.
A small portion of your capital—no more than 5%—can be allocated to trying new protocols, minting NFTs, or trading new tokens.
Key rule: when your hot wallet grows due to success, immediately move excess gains to warm or cold wallets. Never let temporary wins distort your structure.
4. Why Rebuilding a Position Is Harder Than Finding One
Shenyu makes a key point:
“It’s harder to re-enter a position after selling than it is to find a great asset in the first place.”
Why?
- Admitting you were wrong is psychologically difficult.
- Price anchoring traps you into thinking “I can’t buy back higher.”
- You’ve built internal stories to justify past decisions—and it’s hard to rewrite those stories.
That’s why structure matters. You want to design systems that make it easier to re-enter when your thesis still holds, regardless of past ego or FOMO.
5. You Don’t Need Higher Accuracy—You Need Better Structure
Shenyu openly admits: his win rate on big decisions is only slightly above 40%.
This is not a failure—it’s reality.
The key is not being right more often, but building a portfolio where:
- Your wins compound
- Your losses are contained
- Your psychology is protected
That’s what the four-wallet system offers: a rational, repeatable method for surviving the market’s ups and downs.
6. In Conclusion: Long-Term Thinking Is Built, Not Believed
People love to talk about “conviction” and “faith.” But conviction without structure is just hope.
True long-termism is designed. It’s built from routines, from systems, and from wallets that serve different purposes and timelines.
When you set up a structure like this, you’re giving your future self the best possible chance of success—not because you’ll always be right, but because you’ll be prepared when you’re wrong.
Further Reading & Resources
- Full podcast: “How to Hold Great Assets Long-Term” (Xiaoyuzhou.fm)
- OneKey’s Position Management Framework
- E2M Research’s podcast series “Guesses & Refutations”
- OneKey official site: https://onekey.so
