Bitunix Analyst: Behind New Highs in Risk Assets, Policy Credibility—not Optimism—is Supporting the Market

Risk assets are again trading near record levels, but the market narrative is becoming more complicated than a simple “AI boom” or “soft landing” story. A Bitunix analyst view circulating in market discussions points to a more structural driver: investors are increasingly pricing the credibility of policy intervention across energy, currencies, supply chains, and monetary policy.

For crypto investors, this matters because Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and broader digital asset markets do not trade in isolation. Crypto liquidity is still deeply connected to global dollar conditions, risk appetite, energy costs, and the credibility of institutions that shape capital flows. In 2025, the key question is not whether the market is optimistic. It is whether governments and central banks can keep the macro framework stable enough for risk-taking to continue.

The Market Is Pricing Policy Execution, Not Just Growth

The recent strength in equities and crypto-linked risk assets has coincided with several overlapping policy signals.

Central banks are still fighting inflation. Energy markets are reacting to diplomatic progress around critical shipping routes. Governments are considering administrative tools to contain fuel costs. At the same time, industrial policy and trade protection continue to influence the cost of metals, semiconductors, and manufacturing inputs.

This combination creates a market environment where asset prices are supported not only by corporate earnings, but also by confidence that policymakers can manage shocks before they become systemic.

That is especially relevant for digital assets. Bitcoin often benefits when investors question long-term fiat purchasing power, but it can also suffer when real yields rise and liquidity tightens. Ethereum and other smart contract ecosystems are more sensitive to venture funding, on-chain activity, and the broader appetite for technology risk. Stablecoin demand, meanwhile, tends to rise when global investors seek dollar access outside traditional banking channels.

In other words, crypto is no longer just a parallel market. It is a high-beta expression of macro trust and liquidity.

AI Capex Remains the Growth Engine, but the Cost of Capital Matters

Artificial intelligence infrastructure remains one of the strongest investment themes in global markets. Large-scale compute contracts, rapid expansion in data center capacity, and advances in memory and semiconductor supply chains continue to support the view that AI infrastructure is still in an early buildout phase.

For crypto, the connection is indirect but important. AI infrastructure and blockchain infrastructure compete for capital, chips, energy, and developer attention. High demand for compute can support semiconductor and data center investment, but it can also raise input costs for miners, validators, cloud-based node operators, and decentralized physical infrastructure networks.

The more important issue is financing. If interest rates remain elevated, investors will begin to separate companies and protocols with real cash flow from those relying mainly on future narratives. That shift is already visible across crypto markets: projects with sustainable revenue, strong treasury management, and clear product-market fit are being treated differently from purely speculative tokens.

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains central here. The Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks and data dependence in its public communications, and markets closely track each update from the Federal Open Market Committee. If policymakers keep rates higher for longer, the valuation premium for long-duration assets may become harder to justify.

That includes many parts of the crypto market. Bitcoin may retain its monetary narrative, but altcoins, governance tokens, and infrastructure tokens often behave more like early-stage technology assets. When discount rates rise, future network value is marked down more aggressively.

Energy Diplomacy Could Reduce a Key Risk Premium

Energy is another macro variable with direct crypto implications.

Reports of progress around negotiations affecting the Strait of Hormuz have helped reduce fears of a severe supply disruption. The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints in global energy trade, and any improvement in shipping security can lower the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has long identified the area as a critical route for seaborne oil flows.

Lower energy risk can support risk assets in two ways. First, it reduces inflation pressure, giving central banks more flexibility. Second, it lowers operating costs for energy-intensive industries.

Bitcoin mining is directly exposed to this dynamic. While mining economics depend on hashprice, hardware efficiency, local electricity markets, and network difficulty, broader energy prices still affect sentiment and operational planning. A more stable energy market can reduce uncertainty for miners, especially in regions where electricity prices are linked to natural gas or imported fuel.

At the same time, energy policy is becoming increasingly political. If governments use waivers, subsidies, strategic reserves, or regulatory exemptions to keep domestic energy prices contained, markets may interpret that as another form of policy backstop. This can be supportive in the short term, but it also means asset prices become more dependent on continued administrative action.

For crypto investors, the lesson is straightforward: energy shocks can quickly become liquidity shocks. A sudden oil spike can revive inflation fears, push bond yields higher, pressure growth stocks, and weaken speculative digital assets.

Currency Intervention and the Dollar Liquidity Channel

Currency markets are also moving closer to the center of policy strategy.

Japan’s yen weakness has been a recurring global concern because it affects carry trades, dollar liquidity, and risk positioning. If U.S. officials signal support for yen stability, or if Japanese authorities move closer to intervention, investors must reassess leveraged trades that depend on cheap funding currencies.

This matters for crypto because leveraged liquidity often flows across asset classes. When carry trades are stable, capital can move into equities, credit, emerging markets, and digital assets. When currency volatility rises, investors may reduce leverage quickly.

The Bank for International Settlements has repeatedly highlighted the importance of global dollar funding and cross-border financial conditions in market stability. Its research on international banking and liquidity channels is useful context for understanding why FX stress can spill into broader risk markets.

Stablecoins sit directly inside this theme. Dollar-backed stablecoins have become a major settlement layer for crypto trading, cross-border transfers, and on-chain liquidity. When global demand for dollars rises, stablecoin activity can increase. But when liquidity tightens abruptly, crypto markets may experience sharper liquidation cascades.

Supply Chain Protection Keeps Inflation Risk Alive

Another reason markets are not simply “risk-on” is that supply chain policy remains inflationary.

The U.S. continues to examine broader tariff and industrial protection measures across strategic materials and manufacturing inputs. Such policies may support domestic production and national security goals, but they can also raise costs for businesses. Higher metal prices, semiconductor constraints, and fragmented supply chains all influence the capital expenditure cycle.

For blockchain infrastructure, this has several consequences:

• Mining hardware and data center equipment can become more expensive.
• Node infrastructure and cloud services may face higher operating costs.
• Consumer hardware and secure devices may be affected by component pricing.
• Startups may need longer runways as infrastructure costs rise.

This is why crypto market analysis in 2025 must include industrial policy. The sector depends on physical infrastructure far more than many narratives admit. Blockchains are digital networks, but they run on chips, servers, energy grids, and secure hardware.

Why Rising VIX Alongside New Highs Is Not a Contradiction

One of the more interesting market signals is that equity indices can reach new highs while volatility indicators also rise. At first glance, this looks inconsistent. In practice, it suggests investors are participating in the rally while simultaneously buying protection.

That is an important distinction. The market is not ignoring risk; it is pricing upside and hedging downside at the same time.

For crypto, this kind of structure can produce sharp moves in both directions. When liquidity is abundant and hedges are in place, Bitcoin and major crypto assets can benefit from risk appetite. But if inflation data surprises higher, central banks turn more hawkish, or energy diplomacy breaks down, leveraged positions may unwind quickly.

Michael Burry’s warning about a potential crash scenario fits into this broader debate. The more relevant point is not whether markets repeat 1987 mechanically, but whether leverage, crowded positioning, and suppressed volatility have created fragility. Crypto investors are familiar with this pattern: prices can rise for weeks on improving liquidity, then fall violently when collateral, funding rates, and sentiment reverse together.

What This Means for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins

The current macro setup creates different implications across the crypto market.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin may continue to attract investors looking for a non-sovereign monetary asset, especially if policy intervention expands and fiscal credibility becomes a larger concern. However, Bitcoin is still sensitive to real yields and dollar liquidity in shorter time frames. A stronger dollar or a renewed rise in Treasury yields could limit upside even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

Ethereum and Smart Contract Platforms

Ethereum’s outlook depends more heavily on network usage, scaling progress, fee dynamics, and institutional adoption of tokenized assets. The continued development of Ethereum’s roadmap supports the long-term infrastructure case, but high rates may reduce investor tolerance for weak revenue models across the broader smart contract ecosystem.

Stablecoins

Stablecoins remain one of crypto’s most important product-market fit stories. In a world of currency volatility and uneven access to dollar banking, on-chain dollars can serve real demand. Regulatory clarity will be critical, and investors should monitor official developments from institutions such as the Financial Stability Board.

Tokenized Real-World Assets

If policy credibility remains strong and rates stay elevated, tokenized Treasury products and other real-world asset structures may continue to attract attention. These products connect blockchain settlement with yield-bearing traditional assets, making them especially relevant in a higher-rate environment.

Three Macro Signals Crypto Investors Should Watch

Over the next several weeks, crypto market direction may depend less on isolated industry headlines and more on three global variables.

First, investors should watch whether diplomatic progress around key energy routes becomes formal and durable. A credible agreement could reduce inflation pressure and improve risk appetite.

Second, the market will focus on central bank language. If Fed officials continue to argue that policy is not restrictive enough, crypto valuations may face a tougher liquidity backdrop.

Third, AI infrastructure spending must remain credible. If major technology companies continue to fund compute, storage, and semiconductor expansion from strong cash flows, the broader technology cycle can stay intact. If margins weaken or financing conditions tighten, high-valuation technology assets and speculative crypto sectors may become more vulnerable.

Self-Custody Becomes More Important in a Policy-Driven Market

A market supported by policy credibility can still deliver strong returns, but it also introduces new dependencies. Investors are relying on central banks to manage inflation, governments to contain energy shocks, and regulators to shape the future of digital finance.

That is precisely why risk management matters.

For crypto users, risk management is not only about entry price or portfolio allocation. It also includes custody. When volatility rises, exchange outages, withdrawal delays, phishing campaigns, and rushed transactions become more common. Long-term holders should consider separating trading capital from long-term storage and using secure self-custody practices.

OneKey hardware wallets are designed for users who want to hold digital assets with stronger private key protection, clear transaction verification, and multi-chain support. In a market where macro policy can move prices quickly, controlling your own keys remains one of the few risks investors can directly manage.

Bottom Line

The current rally in risk assets is not built purely on enthusiasm. It is being supported by a broader belief that governments and central banks can manage energy, currency, supply chain, and liquidity risks without breaking the expansion.

That belief may continue to support Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and crypto infrastructure if AI investment remains strong, energy risk declines, and monetary policy avoids a renewed shock. But the same structure also means markets are vulnerable to disappointment.

For crypto investors, the message is clear: follow liquidity, watch policy credibility, and secure your assets before volatility returns.