Bitunix Analyst: Payrolls Stall Again, Unemployment Tops 4.5% — Macro Weakness Is Clear as Crypto Enters the “Policy Trade” Phase

U.S. labor data for November signals a cooler economy and a market increasingly governed by policy expectations rather than pure growth. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 64,000 in November while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, a near four‑year high; gains were concentrated in health care and construction as federal government payrolls continued to shrink. Short‑tenure unemployment and part‑time work for economic reasons also rose, reinforcing the narrative of a structurally softening job market. See the official BLS November Employment Situation for details and August/September downward revisions totaling 33,000. (bls.gov)

From data to policy: why markets are now trading the Fed

With growth indicators fading, attention shifts squarely to the policy path. On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bp cut and struck a cautious tone about further moves, explicitly tying future decisions to incoming data and balance‑of‑risk assessments, per the FOMC statement. Rate‑futures pricing whipsawed after the jobs release, briefly lifting odds of an early‑2026 cut before settling back, according to Reuters’ post‑NFP wrap. For how markets translate fed funds futures into probabilities, see the CME FedWatch methodology. (federalreserve.gov)

Bottom line for crypto: we are in a “policy trade” regime. In such periods, digital assets tend to trade the direction and speed of policy easing/tightening more than backward‑looking growth data. Dovish surprises often compress real yields and ease financial conditions, supporting risk appetite; hawkish surprises do the opposite. The November report, with weak headline hiring and a higher jobless rate, strengthens the case that macro beta in crypto will hinge on the Fed’s reaction function over the next few months. (bls.gov)

What’s inside the labor data that matters for crypto risk

• Narrow job creation breadth: November gains came mainly from health care (+46k) and construction (+28k), not across cyclical sectors. Narrow breadth typically dampens confidence in a sustained upswing. (bls.gov)
• Government drag: Federal employment fell another 6,000 in November after a large October drop, removing a cushion to headline payrolls. (bls.gov)
• Underemployment up: People working part‑time for economic reasons rose by 909,000 from September to November; those unemployed less than 5 weeks rose by 316,000—both consistent with early‑cycle labor softness that can influence the Fed’s risk assessment. (bls.gov)

How the “policy trade” maps to crypto positioning

1. Liquidity and real yields
   Crypto beta often improves when policy loosens and real yields fall. The Fed’s December cut supports that direction, but guidance was guarded. If subsequent data keep labor soft and inflation contained, policy could lean more accommodative, a constructive setup for BTC/ETH beta and alt‑risk. Conversely, sticky inflation or hawkish Fed communication would cap rallies. Track the Fed’s own signals via the FOMC press releases and projections. (federalreserve.gov)

2. On‑chain USD yield as a shock absorber
   In a world of slower growth and stop‑go easing, investors increasingly “park” dry powder in tokenized T‑bill products and money‑market‑style funds on public chains. As of mid‑December, the market value of tokenized U.S. Treasuries tracked by RWA.xyz is several billions of dollars and growing, offering transparent, on‑chain cash management with policy‑sensitive yields. This segment historically sees inflows when macro uncertainty rises. (app.rwa.xyz)

3. Policy microstructure and regulation
   Beyond rates, headline risk from rulemaking and supervisory actions also drives dispersion. Notably, the CFTC launched a digital assets pilot for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets, while the UK’s FCA opened a consultation on comprehensive crypto rules and the Bank of Canada outlined principles for stablecoin backing and redemption. Each of these developments can shift risk premia across stablecoins, exchanges, and DeFi primitives—another reason the coming months will be dominated by policy and regulation headlines. (cftc.gov)

A practical playbook for the next quarter

• Watch the data that the Fed watches: labor claims, JOLTS, CPI/PCE, and the next FOMC communications. The December 10 statement is your baseline; deviations from that tone should be tradeable for crypto beta and duration‑sensitive tokens. Refer to the December FOMC statement. (federalreserve.gov)
• Track rate‑cut odds and term structure: Fed funds futures and options implied probabilities provide early signals for risk appetite. If you’re not looking at raw futures, use educational resources on the CME FedWatch methodology to interpret moves. (cmegroup.com)
• Manage liquidity proactively: In choppy “policy trade” regimes, many funds blend directional crypto exposure with on‑chain cash equivalents (tokenized T‑bills, tokenized MMFs) to control volatility. The RWA.xyz dashboard is a useful public reference for market size and product lists. (app.rwa.xyz)
• Mind cross‑market linkages: Dollar strength, U.S. real yields, and equity volatility (VIX) still matter. Expect regime‑dependent correlations: crypto’s sensitivity to real yields typically rises when policy uncertainty is high. (federalreserve.gov)

Risks and considerations

• Data quality and timing: The BLS noted disruptions around October collection and slightly elevated standard errors for November, so one month shouldn’t be over‑extrapolated. Still, the direction—higher unemployment, narrower job gains—is consistent with a slowing labor market. Review the caveats in the BLS release. (bls.gov)
• Policy path is not linear: The Fed cut in December but remains data‑dependent; futures pricing around early‑2026 is fluid and can swing with every release, as Reuters’ post‑NFP coverage shows. (reuters.com)
• Regulatory divergence: Jurisdictions are moving at different speeds. UK and Canada initiatives show momentum, while U.S. agencies (e.g., the CFTC pilot) are exploring targeted frameworks. Divergence can create basis and venue risks for traders and stablecoin users. (reuters.com)

For OneKey users: self‑custody in a policy‑driven market

A policy‑driven market increases both volatility and counterparty risk. If you are rotating between risk assets and on‑chain cash equivalents, keeping operational keys safe is paramount. OneKey hardware wallets help reduce single‑point‑of‑failure and venue risks by keeping private keys offline, supporting multi‑chain portfolios, and enabling secure signing for DeFi and RWA integrations. In an environment where macro policy and regulation headlines move prices by the hour, disciplined self‑custody and transaction verification are as important as your macro view.

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This article uses the following primary sources for data and policy references: BLS November jobs report; Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Dec 10, 2025); Reuters on rate‑cut odds after the NFP release; CME FedWatch methodology; RWA.xyz tokenized Treasuries dashboard; CFTC digital‑assets pilot; FCA consultation; Bank of Canada stablecoin principles. (bls.gov)