Corporate Bitcoin Treasury: Baseline, Positive and Stress Scenarios

1. Baseline scenario: Bitcoin fluctuates, but the company can still finance and operate normally

The baseline scenario can assume that Bitcoin fluctuates within a wide range, the capital market is not completely closed, and the company's operations do not suffer a major deterioration. Management can still pay daily expenses, interest and taxes, and does not need to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations; if it continues to buy, the source of funds will mainly be controllable cash balances or moderate-sized financing.

In this scenario, the most interesting thing to watch is not whether total holdings continue to grow, but whether the growth improves shareholders' unit exposure. A company may announce "5,000 new BTC", but if a large number of new shares are issued at the same time, the diluted BTC per share may actually decline. Investors therefore need to look at total BTC, fully diluted shares, average purchase cost, cash balance, debt maturities and operating cash flow simultaneously.

A healthy baseline scenario typically has several characteristics: the company retains sufficient non-Bitcoin liquidity; fixed expenses over the next twelve months are not dependent on ongoing financing; debt maturities match asset volatility; there is no significant deterioration in BTC per share post-funding; and significant purchases and financings are publicly disclosed within a reasonable period of time.

If these conditions do not hold, the company may enter a state of stress due to cash burn, rising interest rates, or stock discounts, even if the Bitcoin price does not plummet. In other words, the baseline scenario does not mean "no risk", but that the risk is still within a manageable range.

2. Positive scenario: Price, financing and stock premium form a positive cycle

A positive scenario usually involves three things happening simultaneously: the price of Bitcoin rises, the company's stock maintains a premium relative to its net assets, and the capital markets are willing to continue providing funding. When the company's equity valuation is higher than the value of its Bitcoin holdings and other net assets, management may raise funds through ATM issuance, convertible bonds or preferred stocks, and then use the funds to buy more Bitcoin.

The most commonly discussed case of this pattern is Strategy. Its public documents show that the company has long used convertible bonds and equity financing to purchase Bitcoin, and has turned capital structure management into part of its treasury strategy. [1] When stock premiums, financing costs, and Bitcoin prices are all simultaneously favorable, a company may expand its position without immediately burning operating cash.

But the forward cycle cannot just look at “how much you bought.” What really needs to be verified is: whether the financing cost is lower than the value brought by asset growth, whether the dilution is covered by the new BTC, whether fixed interest or dividends will create pressure in the future, and whether the stock premium is sustainable.

The most easily overlooked risk during the positive phase is mistaking short-term market enthusiasm for permanent financing capabilities. A rising mNAV can make additional issuances look attractive, but the equity premium can also shrink quickly when market sentiment changes. If the company has set a high financing pace for subsequent purchases, once the premium disappears, it may face the dilemma of "continuing to issue additional issuances will significantly dilute it, and stopping financing will not be able to maintain the growth narrative."

Therefore, the criterion for judging a positive scenario should not be the increase in stock price, but whether diluted BTC per share, net leverage, financing terms and liquidity improve simultaneously.

3. Stress scenario: Bitcoin declines, financing tightens and cash needs occur simultaneously

Rather than simply assuming Bitcoin drops 30% or 50%, a stress scenario puts together a variety of adverse conditions: Bitcoin falls below the company's average cost, the stock moves from a premium to a discount, the bond market demands higher yields, operating cash flow weakens, and debt, taxes, or other fixed expenses approach maturities.

In this case, falling asset prices are only the first layer of impact. The second level is the increase in the company's refinancing costs; the third level is the decline in equity financing efficiency; and the fourth level is governance pressure - the board of directors may have to choose between maintaining the "long-term holding" narrative and protecting the company's solvency.

MARA's announcement in March 2026 to sell part of Bitcoin and use the funds to repurchase convertible senior notes is a real-life example worthy of attention. [2] This does not necessarily mean that the treasury strategy has failed, but that the company's "long-term holding" is ultimately still constrained by the balance sheet. The cost of debt, time to maturity and liquidity needs may change management's approach to positions.

The stress test should at least answer the following questions: if the capital markets are closed for twelve months, will the company still be able to pay its core operating expenses; if the price of Bitcoin is cut in half, will it trigger collateral, covenant or governance issues; if the stock is discounted, will the company continue to issue additional issuances; if the custodian, key signatories or internal systems have an incident, does the company have a verifiable recovery plan?

There are also accounting and disclosure fluctuations to consider. FASB ASU 2023-08 changes the way eligible crypto assets are measured so that the underlying assets are reflected at fair value and price changes are entered into profit and loss. [3] This increases transparency and means that quarterly fluctuations in Bitcoin will more directly affect financial statements and market expectations.

4. Key trigger conditions: what causes the scenario to switch

Scenario analysis cannot just write three outcomes, it must also define "when to switch from one scenario to another." Trigger conditions can be divided into four groups.

Bitcoin and market liquidity

• Bitcoin's deviation from the company's average cost, and the duration of the decline.
• Whether the depth of spot and derivatives markets has declined, and whether selling large positions will significantly impact prices.
• Whether volatility, funding rates and option skew indicate the market is entering a state of high stress.

Stocks and Financing Conditions

• The company's shares shift from a premium to trading close to net assets or at a discount.
• The actual financing cost of new equity, bonds or preferred shares has increased significantly.
• Adverse changes in the conversion price, put-back terms, maturity date and refinancing window of convertible bonds.

Operating and Cash Requirements

• Operating cash flow continues to be negative, or cash consumption accelerates significantly.
• Interest, debt, taxes and capital expenditures exceed available cash within a twelve-month period.
• The company needs to rely on ongoing financing to cover day-to-day expenses not related to Bitcoin.

Trusteeship, Governance and Supervision

• Significant deficiencies in private key management, signing authority, escrow, or audit controls.
• Changes in board authorizations, accounting treatments, regional regulatory or disclosure requirements.
• There is a single point of failure with key personnel, recovery processes, or multi-signature governance.

Only when the triggering conditions are clearly written can scenario analysis be executable. Otherwise, "baseline, positive, and pressure" are just three stories, not a sustainably updated risk tool.

5. Leading and Lagging Indicators: Don’t wait for earnings to discover risks

Leading indicators are used to observe risks developing, while lagging indicators confirm that risks are already reflected in financial results. The following indicators need to be used in conjunction rather than drawing conclusions independently.

Indicators such as mNAV and "BTC Yield" are usually defined by the company or the market and are not unified accounting indicators. When comparing different companies, you must first check the numerator, denominator, share count and debt treatment method. Numbers with the same name cannot be directly compared together.

6. Cross-asset impact: BTC, company stocks, bonds, ETF and self-custody are not the same exposure

Directly holding BTC mainly bears the Bitcoin price, network and key management risks. When purchasing treasury company stock, management, operating, dilution, debt, jurisdiction and stock valuation risks are layered on top of the Bitcoin price. Purchasing spot ETF will hand over custody and operations to the fund structure, but is also subject to transaction times, fees, fund rules and intermediary arrangements.

Bonds or preferred stocks issued by a company are another risk: investors may receive fixed or priority cash flows, but their repayment security will still be affected by the company's asset value, financing capabilities and operating conditions. When Bitcoin moves significantly, the same company's common stock, bonds, and preferred stock can have completely different price reactions.

Self-hosted BTC emphasizes control. By holding Bitcoin through the OneKey App or hardware wallet, users can control their own private keys and transfers, but they must also independently bear the responsibility for mnemonic backup, device verification, signature verification and recovery. It is not inherently “better for everyone” but rather shifts custody responsibility from the company, fund or trading platform to the users themselves.

So when comparing these assets you don't just ask "who's going up more," but also compare control, cash flow, leverage, trading hours, fees, redemption capabilities, and failure modes.

7. Risk management framework: protect viability first, then discuss increasing positions

A more robust corporate Bitcoin treasury framework should include at least five constraints.

1. **Isolate operating cash. ** Salaries, taxes, vendor payments and core expenses for the next twelve months, should not be relied upon to sell at a specific price for Bitcoin.
2. **Match financing term. ** Assets with high volatility and no fixed cash flow should not rely mainly on short-term or financing that may be tightened at any time.
3. **Set dilution discipline. ** Each time new shares or convertible instruments are issued, describe how BTC, cash and debt change per diluted share.
4. **Establish verifiable custody controls. **Includes multi-signature or hierarchical authorization, signer isolation, recovery drills, audit logging, and single point failure handling.
5. **Pre-defined pressure actions. ** Clarify when to pause purchases, add cash, extend maturity, reduce leverage or sell part of a position.

The following is a simplified example for educational purposes only and does not represent any real company, nor is it a price prediction.

The focus of the table is not on the three prices, but on whether the company still has options under each price environment. The truly dangerous balance sheet is a structure that can only be maintained by relying on "Bitcoin must rise."

8. Data that needs to be continuously updated: Scenario analysis is not a one-time report

Corporate treasury data changes rapidly. Each time the company buys or sells Bitcoin, issues stock, modifies debt terms, releases quarterly financial reports, or changes custody arrangements, it may change the original conclusion.

It is recommended to update the model after at least the following events: major BTC purchases and sales; new equity, bond or preferred stock financing; quarterly and annual financial reports; debt buybacks, rollovers or equity conversions; significant changes in Bitcoin price relative to cost; changes in custodian, audit, regulatory or board policy.

At each update, keep a unified checklist of: total BTC and average cost, fully diluted shares, BTC per share, available cash, debt maturities over the next three years, annual fixed expenses, net leverage, mNAV caliber, escrow controls and last disclosure date. This is how we can distinguish between two different things: "The company bought more Bitcoin" and "Shareholders got a better risk return."

Corporate Bitcoin treasury can become a long-term capital allocation strategy, or it can become a highly leveraged cycle sustained by market enthusiasm. To judge the difference between the two, you cannot just look at the currency price and position rankings, but also look at whether the company still has liquidity, financing options, governance disciplines and transparent disclosures under different circumstances.

References

1. Strategy, Form 8-K (May 2026)：https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526249768/mstr-20260530.htm
2. MARA Holdings, Announcement on Repurchase of Convertible Notes and Sale of Bitcoin (March 2026)：https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/26/3262948/0/en/MARA-Holdings-Inc-Announces-1-0-Billion-Repurchase-of-0-00-Convertible-Senior-Notes-due-2030-and-2031-and-Sale-of-15-133-Bitcoin.html
3. Deloitte, FASB ASU 2023-08 Fair Value Accounting Instructions：https://dart.deloitte.com/USDART/home/publications/deloitte/heads-up/2023/fasb-issues-asu-crypto-assets
4. SEC EDGAR Company Document Search：https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/
5. CoinGecko, Bitcoin Treasures Tracker：https://www.coingecko.com/en/treasuries/bitcoin
6. Metaplanet, Inc. Bitcoin Purchase Disclosure：https://metaplanet.jp/disclosure/en/20260402T160721Z-_4_2_2026__-_Notice_of_Additional_Purchase_of_Bitcoin___2_.pdf
7. Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System：https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
8. OneKey, what exactly is a hardware wallet?：https://onekey.so/blog/zh-CN/learn/what-is-a-hardware-wallet/

Risk warning

Substantial losses are possible on Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, ETF and other crypto-asset-related products. Corporate Bitcoin treasury also carries leverage, dilution, refinancing, liquidity, custody, operating, governance and regulatory risks. The scenarios and numbers in this article are for illustrative purposes only and are not price predictions, nor do they constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Please independently verify the data against the latest company documents and comply with the laws and regulations in your region.