Security Tokenization and Prediction Markets: 7 Crypto Tailwinds to Watch in 2026

The year 2025 reminded everyone that crypto cycles reward discipline. While bitcoin ETFs and institutional rails advanced, many altcoins retraced sharply and liquidity fragmented across chains. Yet beneath the volatility, several durable onchain trends accelerated that are likely to compound into 2026. Below are seven tailwinds OneKey’s users and readers should watch—anchored by security tokenization and prediction markets, and rounded out by infrastructure and UX shifts that make onchain finance more resilient.

Crypto markets were uneven in 2025: bitcoin held up relative to the field while mid- and small-cap tokens sold off, a pattern captured by multiple industry trackers and midyear reviews. That set the stage for “flight‑to‑quality” narratives such as tokenized Treasuries and regulated market rails to gain share. For builders and treasurers, this is the moment to align roadmaps with where real adoption is compounding. For self‑custody users, it’s time to harden key management for a world where regulated assets, yield instruments and event contracts all live side by side onchain. See context in CoinDesk’s mid‑2025 market analysis. (reference)

1) Security tokenization moves from pilots to production

Security tokenization—bringing regulated funds and securities onchain—graduated from pilots to live, revenue‑relevant deployments:

• BlackRock’s tokenized U.S. Treasuries fund BUIDL, issued with Securitize, crossed $1 billion AUM in March and by November was accepted as off‑exchange collateral for institutional trading, with an additional share class on BNB Chain to expand DeFi utility. (overview, collateral use and multi‑chain expansion)
• JPMorgan launched its first tokenized money‑market fund, opening access via its institutional platforms and signaling a deeper commitment to onchain liquidity for traditional instruments. (coverage)
• Policymakers and standard‑setters continued to map the path: the BIS published an April 2025 report on tokenisation requirements and use cases across the Americas, highlighting how settlement, collateral and cash‑like instruments fit together onchain. (report)

Why it matters for 2026: compliant rails pull in conservative capital and unlock new collateral types for trading and lending. Builders should design for whitelisted investor flows, onchain NAV oracles, and composable compliance. Treasurers should plan policy that explicitly contemplates tokenized fund shares as treasury assets alongside stablecoins.

2) Tokenized Treasuries become crypto’s onchain cash layer

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries emerged as a “safe yield” primitive amid 2025’s volatility. The category set successive highs through the year, with market cap estimates ranging from $4.2 billion in March to $5.6 billion by April—and continuing to expand as more issuers and chains came online. (market high in March, April update and issuer shares)

Institutional adoption also progressed on the utility side: Aave Labs’ Horizon initiative allows qualified institutions to borrow stablecoins against tokenized fund shares, gradually connecting RWAs to DeFi credit pipes with embedded compliance checks and NAV oracles. (announcement)

What to watch in 2026: broader collateral eligibility (exchanges, prime brokers, clearing venues), multi‑chain issuance patterns, and standardized onchain disclosures for fund NAVs.

3) Prediction markets go mainstream—within guardrails

Event markets entered the financial mainstream in 2024–2025 and kept growing in 2025, helped by clearer U.S. legal positioning and new entrants:

• A federal appeals court allowed Kalshi to list election contracts in October 2024, and in May 2025 the CFTC voluntarily dismissed its appeal of the lower‑court ruling—leaving permission in place for certain political event contracts under CFTC oversight. (legal milestone, appeal dismissal)
• Trading volumes reached new highs in 2025; weekly notional crossed $2 billion across platforms per aggregated Dune dashboards cited by Yahoo Finance, while Polymarket advanced toward U.S. relaunch in beta. (volume snapshot, U.S. beta news)

Two caveats for 2026: first, methodology and “wash trading” concerns (a November 2025 study estimated a share of artificial churn on at least one venue), which will push platforms to tighten surveillance. Second, jurisdictional differences—state gaming rules vs. federal derivatives oversight—will continue to shape product design. (study coverage)

For onchain users, these markets can be a new, uncorrelated “information asset class,” but they remain high‑risk and policy‑sensitive. Allocate accordingly.

4) Restaking turns the corner from TVL to slashing‑secured services

EigenLayer added the long‑awaited slashing feature in April 2025, completing a key part of its shared‑security design and shifting the conversation from “yield only” to “security with real consequences.” With billions in restaked assets and dozens of actively validated services building, 2026 is likely to be the year AVSs deliver user‑visible utility (or get stress‑tested). (feature launch)

Implications: developers should treat AVS risk similarly to L2/L3 selection risk and document operator sets, slashing conditions, and rollback plans. Treasurers should model restaking exposures like counterparty risk.

5) Modular data availability lowers costs and multiplies rollups

Data availability (DA) specialization kept maturing through 2025. Celestia’s DA layer continued to see integration across rollup frameworks and chains, with its inclusion as an option in Polygon’s Chain Development Kit and growing adoption by rollup‑as‑a‑service providers—an early sign that DA choice is becoming a standard lever for cost and throughput. (CDK integration background)

Why it matters: cheaper, scalable DA means more application‑specific rollups can make economic sense. But it also introduces liquidity and UX fragmentation that wallets and bridges must smooth over in 2026.

6) Bitcoin’s programmable moment: BitVM‑powered bridges and L2s

A parallel wave is bringing Bitcoin collateral into programmable environments without surrendering security assumptions. In 2025, Citrea deployed its BitVM2‑based Clementine bridge on testnet to address collateral bottlenecks for bridging BTC to a rollup, aiming for trust‑minimized exits and broader BTC‑as‑collateral use in DeFi. Expect more pragmatic BTC L2 launches to lean on optimistic/BitVM‑style dispute layers into 2026. (technical milestone)

What to monitor: exit finality times, challenge games that work at scale, and whether BTC‑native users accept smart contract risk in exchange for utility.

7) Wallet UX crosses the chasm: passkeys and smart accounts

User‑experience innovation accelerated thanks to account abstraction and passkeys. The FIDO Alliance reported in 2025 that passkey awareness and usage climbed meaningfully, with higher login success rates and sharply lower support burdens—important signals that passwordless auth is ready for mainstream consumer finance. (FIDO update, business adoption metrics)

Onchain, major providers rolled out smart wallets that use passkeys and sponsor gas, making first‑transaction UX far smoother—while also introducing new recovery patterns users must understand. If you rely on passkeys, know precisely how to back them up and how recovery works; providers like Coinbase document the operational model for their smart wallet flows. (help center primer)

In 2026, expect broader passkey support across dapps, more ERC‑4337 smart‑account tooling, and clearer “break‑glass” recovery patterns that combine device passkeys, social recovery and hardware keys.

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Strategy guide for 2026

• Builders

  • Design for compliant composability: assume investors will hold tokenized fund shares, stablecoins, and prediction contracts in the same wallet. Offer intent‑based routing and MEV‑aware order flow to deliver best execution for this mix. CoW‑style intent routers provide one blueprint for improving trader outcomes at scale. (technical direction)
  • Expose clear risk surfaces: if you rely on an AVS or a DA layer, document dependencies and failure modes in human‑readable language.

• Treasurers and funds

  • Formalize policies for tokenized Treasuries and money‑market funds as part of the “cash bucket,” including custody, whitelist status, venue collateral eligibility, and rebalancing triggers. (market evolution)
  • If participating in prediction markets, treat positions as event risk with tight sizing and explicit venue due diligence given the evolving legal landscape. (U.S. legal context)

• Self‑custody users

  • Separate hot UX from cold security: passkeys and smart wallets are excellent for daily use, but long‑term holdings—especially tokenized securities and higher‑value positions—benefit from offline key storage and a clear recovery plan.

Risks and open questions

• Policy and oversight: event contracts, stablecoins, and tokenized funds now live in adjacent regulatory silos. Expect renewed coordination in 2026 as volumes scale. (BIS perspective on preconditions)
• Data transparency: standardized onchain NAV feeds and disclosures will become table stakes if tokenized funds are to serve as widely accepted collateral. (Horizon’s NAVLink approach)
• Infrastructure tail risk: shared‑security stacks and modular DA make systems more flexible—but also increase dependency chains. 2026 will test operational playbooks.

Final word: custody is a feature, not an afterthought

As tokenized Treasuries, event contracts, restaking rewards and BTC L2 assets converge in the same portfolio, key management becomes a differentiator. If you plan to hold regulated tokenized funds or higher‑value BTC/ETH positions for the medium term, consider pairing a daily‑use smart wallet with an offline hardware wallet to segregate risk and simplify audits.

OneKey is built for this blended future: it offers secure offline key storage and broad multi‑chain support so you can custody tokenized fund shares, stablecoins, and L2 assets alongside your core BTC and ETH, while using your passkey‑based smart wallet for day‑to‑day transactions. That separation—UX hot, security cold—reduces operational mistakes without sacrificing onchain utility. It’s a practical way to capture 2026’s onchain tailwinds while sleeping better at night.

If you’re building or allocating into any of the seven themes above and want a second set of eyes on your custody and access‑control plan, we’re here to help.