Is the U.S. Government About to Shut Down Again — Will Crypto Get Hit?

2026年1月27日

Is the U.S. Government About to Shut Down Again — Will Crypto Get Hit?

In crypto, the calendar matters almost as much as the chart.

From October 1 to November 12, 2025, the United States experienced a 43-day federal government shutdown that disrupted economic data releases and amplified risk-off sentiment across global markets. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics later detailed how the shutdown affected CPI operations and release schedules, underscoring how a “data blackout” can ripple into every macro-sensitive asset — including crypto (BLS: 2025 shutdown impact on CPI, BLS: revised release dates).

Now, a familiar deadline is back on the table.

As of January 27, 2026, lawmakers are again racing the clock to finalize appropriations before funding expires after January 30 (effectively 12:01 a.m. ET on January 31, depending on how the continuing resolution is written and implemented). Major outlets are already framing the situation as a rising shutdown risk (The Wall Street Journal reporting on the looming deadline, AP coverage of the latest funding push).

Meanwhile, crypto-native indicators are also flashing warning signs: Polymarket, an onchain prediction market, shows traders pricing a high probability of a shutdown event by the end of January. At the time of writing (Jan 27, 2026), the market “Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?” was around 74% (Polymarket market page).

So the question for crypto investors is straightforward:

If Washington stalls again, does the crypto market dump again?

1) A shutdown doesn’t “target crypto” — but it can hit the same pressure points

A U.S. government shutdown is not a crypto-specific event. But it can stress the exact channels that often drive Bitcoin volatility and broader risk-asset pricing:

A. Liquidity expectations tighten when uncertainty rises

Crypto still trades like a high-beta macro asset in many windows. When markets move into “risk-off,” the usual chain reaction shows up:

leverage gets reduced
funding rates flip
altcoin liquidity thins out first
“safe yield” products attract flows

That last point has become more important in 2025–2026 because tokenized cash-like products are now a real competitor to idle stablecoins.

For example, tokenized U.S. Treasuries have grown into a meaningful onchain parking lot for capital. As of Jan 27, 2026, RWA.xyz shows tokenized Treasuries at about $10.08B (RWA.xyz Treasuries dashboard). In risk-off moments, flows into these instruments can accelerate — which may reduce marginal demand for more volatile crypto assets.

B. The “data blackout” problem affects crypto more than people expect

In 2025, the shutdown didn’t just delay government services — it delayed information.

When CPI, jobs data, and other releases are paused or distorted, macro traders lose their primary inputs for rate expectations. The BLS described how CPI data collection was suspended during the 2025 lapse and how releases had to be reorganized afterward (BLS CPI shutdown impact page).

For crypto, this matters because:

rate expectations drive USD strength/weakness
USD strength/weakness affects global demand for risk assets
risk assets drive exchange flows, leverage, and liquidation cascades

C. Regulatory and policy timelines can stall (even if markets are open)

During a shutdown, many agencies operate with reduced staffing. That can slow:

rulemaking
licensing and supervision
public guidance (including tax-related communications)

即使你并不专门交易有关「监管政策」的叙事，市场仍常常会对政策不确定性做出反应。

2）2025年教给市场的一个教训：政府停摆的代价是真实存在的——而且并非完全可逆

2025年末，经济学家和监管机构指出，政府停摆造成的损失，并不总是能在事后完全「弥补回来」。

PolitiFact 摘要了国会预算办公室（CBO）的观点：尽管在政府重启后，大部分经济活动会恢复，但部分产出会永久性地损失，根据停摆时间的不同，损失估计在 70亿到140亿美元之间（PolitiFact对停摆成本的解析）。

那加密货币为何要在意GDP的这些数学指标？

因为加密资产的定价通常反映了对以下因素的判断：

未来增长预期
未来流动性预期
未来政策稳定性

而政府停摆正是对这三者的压力测试。

3）2026年的关键不同：联储会议与停摆最后期限重叠

这一次，宏观时间表更加紧迫。

美联储2026年1月的FOMC会议安排在1月27-28日（官方会议日历）。这意味着：

交易者同时在为政策决议和可能的财政中断进行仓位调整
波动性风险被压缩在更小的时间窗口内
「意外结果」可能叠加（鹰派语调 + 停摆头条新闻的组合效果远比单独出现更剧烈）

对加密市场而言，这种催化剂的重叠通常会增加以下走势的概率：

突然的针状波动（wick）
周末的流动性间隙
永续合约中的强制去杠杆

4）在接下来的4个工作日内（加密原生与宏观原生）应重点关注什么？

在距离1月30日（1月27–30）仅剩4个美国工作日的时间里，以下是最值得关注的关键指标：

1）OPM信号（“官方停摆”触发器）

Polymarket的市场规则明确引用**美国人事管理办公室（OPM）**的运营状态作为判定依据（OPM运营状态门户）。

如果停摆发生，这是市场最常依赖的清晰「是/否」确认信号之一。

2）美元流动性代理：稳定币与现金代币化工具

在2025年，稳定币不仅是「交易对」，而是整个系统的结算底层网络。

同年，美国国会也推动了关键的稳定币监管立法，凸显稳定币在金融体系中日益增长的重要性（STABLE法案（2025年版）国会文本）。

在风险偏好下降的时间段，需留意以下动态：

稳定币市场占比上升
国债代币化产品的供应/TVL上升（RWA.xyz 国债看板）
即便BTC价格坚挺，山寨币的流动性明显下滑

3）衍生品热度：资金费率、未平仓合约、清算情况

政府停摆担忧最早在以下指标中体现出来：

未平仓合约下降（风险撤出）
资金费率转为中性或负值
在关键价位附近形成清算集中区

如果在最后期限之前市场杠杆仍高，整体市场便更加「脆弱」——任何头条新闻都可能触发机械性抛售。

4）交易所行为 & 法币通道（实际操作层面）

尽管加密市场全天候运作，但传统结算体系并不是。政府停摆可能带来二阶操作影响：

某些机构的客服与合规响应延迟
涉及联邦对接的人员配置减少
市场沟通传递延迟

这并不代表「资金有风险」，但在极端波动时，这些因素会影响用户体验。

5）所以……加密市场会「被锤」吗？

政府停摆会提高市场回调的概率，但并不意味着一定会发生。

一个实用的心理模型如下：

若最后一刻避免停摆： 市场可能因松一口气而短期反弹，但如果财政根本分歧未解，涨势持续性可能有限。
若停摆确认实施： 初期波动性提升，其次是叙事演化。市场往往先快速重新定价风险，然后寻找下一个宏观锚点（如联储语气、债券收益率、通胀预期）。
若停摆拖延时间较长： 不确定性时间越久，整体风险偏好越受抑制——而在全球资本避险的环境下，加密市场一向难有表现。

In other words: crypto is unlikely to be “punished because it’s crypto.” It’s more likely to be hit because it’s still treated as a liquidity-sensitive asset.

6) A simple risk playbook for crypto users (no drama, just process)

Here’s a pragmatic checklist many experienced traders and long-term holders follow into macro headline risk:

Cut leverage first, not last. If you must trade perps, size smaller and plan exits before the headline hits.
Prefer liquidity over cleverness. In fast markets, the best strategy is often the one you can execute.
Review DeFi collateral positions. If you borrow against volatile assets, re-check liquidation buffers.
Prepare for weekend gaps. Funding deadlines often collide with low-liquidity periods.

And most importantly:

Reconfirm your self-custody posture

Macro shocks are exactly when users rediscover why self-custody matters. If you rely heavily on custodial platforms, you inherit their operational constraints during peak stress.

A hardware wallet like OneKey is designed for this exact moment: keeping private keys offline, supporting advanced protections like passphrase/hidden wallets, and (for certain models) enabling QR-based air-gapped signing — useful when you want to reduce your attack surface during chaotic market windows.

Closing thoughts

The 2025 shutdown (Oct 1–Nov 12, 2025) reminded everyone that Washington gridlock can become a global liquidity narrative — and crypto is not immune. With the Jan 30, 2026 deadline approaching and prediction markets already pricing elevated risk, the smartest move is not panic.

It’s preparation: understand the channels, watch the right indicators, and make sure your custody and leverage choices won’t force decisions at the worst possible time.